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Upcoming Risk Events, April 17 – April 21, 2017

Upcoming Risk Events, April 17 – April 21, 2017

 

Hi everyone, this is the weekly risks event analysis where I talk about economic events and news that are scheduled to be released in the upcoming week and how they can potentially be important and have an impact on your trading.   I will only highlight the events that I consider to cause decent market movements that might give us some nice trading opportunities.

 

Expected figures and dates sometimes change so please refer to my economic calendar for a full list of all scheduled economic data.  http://brandonturnerfx.com/economic-calendar/

 

Also, keep in mind that depending on the time zone that you live in some of these events might fall on different days than when I explain them.

 

If you want to learn more about what I do check me out at http://brandonturnerfx.com/

 

Monday, April 17, 2017

 

It’s a bank holiday for Easter for many countries so volumes will be light and there will not be much major data to impact the markets.

 

AUD, NZD:  In the Asia-Pacific session we see Chinese GDP and Industrial Production data.  Chinese data tends to have an impact on the Australian currency because China is Australia’s largest trading partner by far.  Chinese data has been tilted to the negative for some time so any miss on expectations could negatively impact the price of AUD.

 

JPY:  We also see Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda due to speak at the 92nd Convention of the Trust Companies Association of Japan in Tokyo.  Be on the lookout for any comments regarding their QE program or mention of further easing and stimulus for Japan to impact the pricing of JPY.

 

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

 

AUD:  In the Asia-Pacific session we see the Australian RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.  This is a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.  Any information that is taken as more dovish could cause downside on the AUD, anything that is taken as more hawkish cause upside in the AUD.  The RBA was sounding more upbeat at its last press conference and the recent jobs data was excellent so any information supporting the positive tone will be received positively on AUD.

 

NZD:  We also have the Global Dairy Trade data released out of New Zealand.  This is important because exports make up around 30% of New Zealand’s GDP and dairy is the single largest component of their exports.  GDT prices have fallen or been negative 6 of the last 8 readings.  At the time of this writing there is no expectation but look for one as we get closer to this event.

 

Wednesday April 19, 2017

 

Oil, CAD:  In the US session we see the weekly release of the Crude Oil Inventories which if there is a significant enough deviation from the expectation can have a quite an impact on commodity currencies, especially the Canadian Dollar.  Oil was getting beat up but as soon as Donald Trump started bombing Syria the fears of oil supply chain disruption pushed oil firmly back above the $50 level.

 

NZD:  We also see the release of CPI q/q from New Zealand.  This is important because consumer prices account for the majority of overall inflation in New Zealand.  This will be a market moving event and the headline expectation of 0.8% is expected to print higher than the previous quarterly reading of 0.4%.  If we see a beat on expectations we could see strength in NZD.  However, a miss will cause a sell off and might set up some decent shorting opportunities.

 

Thursday April 20, 2017

 

USD:  In the US session we see the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index out of the US.  This isn’t normally a massive market mover but recently it has gained more attention from the market because of Trump and how much focus he is putting on manufacturing.  Look out for any positive or negative deviations to affect the USD pricing.

 

GBP:  Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to speak at the Institute of International Finance Policy Summit in Washington DC.  He is also going to participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of France even an hour later where audience questions are expected.  Look out for any specific information about Brexit, where interest rates are heading soon, and anything to do with future monetary policies to guide trade in GBP.

 

USD:  At the same event US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is scheduled to speak.  It’s the Treasury Secretary’s job to communicate the US President’s economic policies, and his speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments.  So we know that Trump pretty much flies off the seat of his pants so my guess would be that we will learn a lot about what is happening behind closed doors at the White House.

 

Friday April 21, 2017

 

EUR:  In the London session we see a slew of European countries reporting Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data.  On their own these data sets are not particularly important but the market is starting to look for reasons to buy the Euro on positive economic because it is starting to feel that the numbers are warranting tapering of the ECBs Quantitative Easing program.  So if we see a trend of positive beats on the expectation it is possible that the market will buy up Euros.

 

GBP:  In the London session we see Retail Sales m/m from the UK.  The current expectation is -0.3% which is lower than the previous of 1.4%.  We would be looking for a print in line with the current sentiment on the Pound to guide our trading.  The risks are almost always skewed to the downside on British economic data because of Brexit fears which will likely be around for the next couple years while the UK sorts out the trade terms of their exit from the single currency.

 

CAD:  We also see the release of Canadian CPI m/m.  The expectation is 0.4% versus the previous reading of 0.2%.  March and April are typically when CPI starts to tick back up into positive territory on a historical level.  I would suspect this to be the case given the excellent employment data out of Canada recently.

 

USD:  FOMC Member Neel Kashkari (voter, no stance) is due to speak at the Hamline University Community Economic Development Symposium, in St. Paul.  Audience questions expected.  FOMC member speeches have taken a backseat lately due to the political uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration.  We have also seen an enormous amount of speeches delivered by Fed members lately all stating pretty much the same things and thus the market is starting to put less importance on these speeches.

 

 

As with all trading opportunities that come from economic data you need to assess the current sentiment on whatever currency it is that you are looking to trade.  This is especially true if you are a day trader because being in line with the current sentiment on a particular currency is going to give you the absolute best chance of making a profit.  Always look trade a currency with a positive sentiment against a currency pair with a weak or negative sentiment.  In other words, buy strong against weak currencies and short weak against strong currencies and you will put yourself on the right side of the professional market most of the time.

 

Check out this free economic calendar.  You can click on any event for a full description and history to get a better idea of each event.

 

http://brandonturnerfx.com/economic-calendar/

 

As always, you need to stay in tune with the news that is hitting the wires and anything that I have written could be completely negated if something else major happens.  This is just my thoughts on the weeks ahead and I will be monitoring the sentiment of the day to make sure my trades are intelligently managed based on what the market is telling me.

 

I hope you found some value in this and good lucking catching some good pips in the upcoming week!

 

If you want to learn more about what I do check me out at http://brandonturnerfx.com/

 

 

 

Two Blokes Trading

About the author, Two Blokes Trading

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