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Upcoming Risk Events, April 10 – April 14, 2017

Upcoming Risk Events, April 10 – April 14, 2017

 

 

Hi everyone, this is the weekly risks event analysis where I talk about economic events and news that are scheduled to be released in the upcoming week and how they can potentially be important and have an impact on your trading.   I will only highlight the events that I consider to cause decent market movements that might give us some nice trading opportunities.

 

Expected figures and dates sometimes change so please refer to my economic calendar for a full list of all scheduled economic data.  http://brandonturnerfx.com/economic-calendar/

 

Also, keep in mind that depending on the time zone that you live in some of these events might fall on different days than when I explain them.

 

If you want to learn more about what I do check me out at http://brandonturnerfx.com/

 

Monday, April 10, 2017

 

A light day today in the Asia-Pacific and London sessions with no tier 1 data to speak of.

 

USD:  However in the US session US Federal Reserve Chair Yellen is due to speak at the University of Michigan.  Audience questions expected which can lead to unscripted answers that may give us a potential trading event if the information is something that the market was not expecting.  Fed officials have been fairly hawkish with most starting to confirm that 4 rate hikes in 2017 are not out of the question.  However, we just had NFP come in extremely weak last week so we will have to see if this changes the hawkish tone from Fed officials going forward.

 

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

 

GBP:  In the London session we see UK CPI y/y expected at 2.2% versus the previous of 2.3%.  CPI is the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers which is really important because consumer prices account for the majority of overall inflation.  Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices can force the Bank of England to raise interest rates.  Last month showed a surprise beat on the headline and sent the Pound higher so if we beat this time it could have the same effect.  However, if it misses then we could see the sentiment go negative on the Pound adding to the Brexit jitters.

 

USD:  FOMC Member Neel Kashkari (voter, no stance) is due to speak at the Minnesota Business Partnership in Minneapolis.  FOMC member speeches have taken a backseat lately due to the political uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration.  We have also seen an enormous amount of speeches delivered by Fed members lately all stating pretty much the same things and thus the market is starting to put less importance on these speeches.

 

Wednesday April 12, 2017

 

GBP:  In the London session we see Average Earnings Index, Claimant Count Change, and the unemployment rate out of the UK.  Average earnings have been overall on the rise lately but did miss by quite a bit last month and are expected to come in lower today as well.  This is one of the BOE’s preferred measurements of the health of the UK economy.  Claimant Count Change is the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month so this is also very important.  A negative print is more desirable because that means less people are claiming unemployment than the previous month.  These data sets will likely dictate the trade on the Pound today.  We also see the UK Unemployment rate which is not expected to move the Pound much unless there is a really wide deviation.

 

CAD:  The Bank of Canada will release its Rate Statement, Overnight Rate, and Monetary Policy Report.  It is largely expected that the BOC will remain on hold with their interest rates and the fact that oil has rebounded a bit and yet another stellar jobs report a couple last week would suggest that there is no reason to cut at this point.  However, we will need to listen in to the following press conference for any information about future monetary policy actions.  A more hawkish tone would suggest a rally in the CAD and a more dovish tone might cause the CAD to sell off.  A neutral ‘wait and see’ stance will likely see choppy price action.

 

USD:  We also see the weekly release of the Crude Oil Inventories which if there is a significant enough deviation from the expectation can have a quite an impact on commodity currencies, especially the Canadian Dollar.  Oil was getting beat up but as soon as Donald Trump started bombing Syria the fears of oil supply chain disruption pushed oil firmly back above the $50 level.

 

Thursday April 13, 2017

 

AUD:  In the Asian session we see Australian Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.  We are expecting a nice print of 20.3k increase in jobs this month which is better than the loss of 6.4k last month.  If there is a nice wide deviation one way or the other this is the kind of event that could cause momentum for a couple days.

 

CAD:  We see manufacturing sales out of Canada which could cause some slight price volatility if there is a wide deviation to the expectation.  Given the importance that the Trump administration has put on manufacturing and the revamping of NAFTA these numbers have become more of a focus to the markets lately.

 

USD:  In the US session we see the release of US PPI and Core PPI m/m.  It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation which we know the consumer is pretty much the most important thing to the US economy because consumer spending makes up for a huge portion of the GDP.  This can move the market if there is a large deviation one way or the other.

 

USD:  We also see the Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data set out of the US.  This is not typically a major market mover unless there is a wide deviation.  There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart, Preliminary and Revised.  The Preliminary release is the earlier and tends to have the most impact on price.

 

Friday April 14, 2017

 

Friday is a bank holiday for New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, Germany and the rest of the Eurozone, Canada, and the United Kingdom for Good Friday so there is no economic data set for any of those countries and price action will probably be rather illiquid.

 

USD:  In the US session we get the release of CPI and Core CPI, Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales out of the US.  All of these have the potential to move the USD significantly especially if there is a wide deviation from the expected.  This is also something the Federal Reserve will take into consideration when determining if the overall economy can sustain higher interest rates.  We would want to see positive prints for the market to start making bets on interest hikes coming sooner rather than later.

 

 

As with all trading opportunities that come from economic data you need to assess the current sentiment on whatever currency it is that you are looking to trade.  This is especially true if you are a day trader because being in line with the current sentiment on a particular currency is going to give you the absolute best chance of making a profit.  Always look trade a currency with a positive sentiment against a currency pair with a weak or negative sentiment.  In other words, buy strong against weak currencies and short weak against strong currencies and you will put yourself on the right side of the professional market most of the time.

 

Check out this free economic calendar.  You can click on any event for a full description and history to get a better idea of each event.

 

http://brandonturnerfx.com/economic-calendar/

 

As always, you need to stay in tune with the news that is hitting the wires and anything that I have written could be completely negated if something else major happens.  This is just my thoughts on the weeks ahead and I will be monitoring the sentiment of the day to make sure my trades are intelligently managed based on what the market is telling me.

 

I hope you found some value in this and good lucking catching some good pips in the upcoming week!

 

If you want to learn more about what I do check me out at http://brandonturnerfx.com/

 

 

Two Blokes Trading

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