Weekly Forex Wrap up, April 17 – April 21, 2017
Hi everyone this is the weekly Forex wrap where I will go over the major highlights for the past week and talk about the impact this may have had on the Forex market. If you would like more free info on the Forex markets and what I do then please check me out on my website http://brandonturnerfx.com/
GBP: On Tuesday UK PM May called for a snap general election to take place on June 8th. This caught the market offside because they were thinking that May was going to announce that she would be stepping down due to health reasons. This is in complete alignment with the recent BBC source comments with the UK PM looking to capitalize on the Conservative Party’s strong polling numbers and potentially seek a stronger parliament heading into Brexit negotiations. Additionally, a June election victory would give May till 2022 to implement Brexit before facing voters for potentially 2-3 years after 2019 exit. So if this is in fact her plan and she succeeds it would be a well-played hand of political chess.
The rally was fierce, pushing several hundred pips higher on all Pound pairs. GBP has given back very little from those gains and is holding near highs on most pairs looking. We are still waiting for confirmation for the go-ahead from the UK Parliament.
Geopolitical: North Korea Ambassador warned UN that US has created a situation that could cause thermonuclear war to break out at any time. There has been a lot of jawboning between the US and North Korea lately with North Korea stating that they will conduct bomb tests weekly now.
Terrorist Attack: There was another unfortunate terrorist attack in France this week in a popular tourist area where police were the targets. This was not a market moving event but if you would like to know more check out this article https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-20/french-policeman-killed-in-paris-shooting-three-days-before-vote
USD, Tax Reform, Healthcare Bill: USD weakness has been seen most of the past week as the market does not have a lot of confidence in Trump getting tax reform and the health care bill done. However, this doesn’t seem to phase Trump as he continues to say everything is great and that we will have deals done basically every day.
EUR, French Elections: The market has been very focussed on the French presidential elections because there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the outcomes and the future of France remaining in the Eurozone. Macron and Fillon will be positive for staying in the Eurozone, while Le Pen and Melenchon (less so the latter) will be distinctly negative for the future prospects of France staying in the Eurozone.
Oil: Oil pretty much got destroyed again this week after having a nice rally the previous week. Crude oil inventories printed in line with the drawdown expectations but the market decided that was not good enough and pounded oil. Saudi Arabia was commenting on extending production cuts for a further 6 months to try and stop the bleeding but the market wants more and deeper cuts to keep the price of oil higher. Oil is now back firmly below $50 after having approached the $54 mark last week.
AUD: The RBA released their Minutes from the April meeting which stated that “conditions in the labour market had been somewhat weaker than had been expected”. However, CPI is expected to pick up above 2% in 2017 with core inflation rising more slowly. Labour and household indebtedness have brought back a slight edge for a rate cut. Given that the minutes are a month old with nothing too surprising but was overall considered dovish by the markets.
If I have used any abbreviations for certain economic data that you may need further clarification on try checking out my economic calendar. You can click on any news event and it will give you a full description of what it means and why it’s important. Doing this is a good self-study practice and will sharpen your skills and understanding of the Forex Market.
Happy trading next week and I hope you bank some good pips.