The Impact Of War On The Financial Markets
In this episode the blokes look at the impact of war on the financial markets & what markets are most effected.
The blokes also share their deepest condolences to the innocent people that have been effected by the war, especially the woman & children.
Jonathan discusses how there is always two sides to every war & how main stream media always have an agenda, so make your own opinion through valid sources.
Rory discusses how religion has & always will be a major cause in so many wars, along with the fight for power, money & resources.
Jonathan shares how he was compelled to an image drawn by the famous artist Banksy, depicting the innocents of children regardless of their cultural background.
While the war in the Middle East continues, the question for us traders is how does it effect the markets? Jonathan and Rory break down what exactly the implications are for now & may have in the future.
While neither countries involved are major contributors to the global markets, countries such as Iran are major oil exporters which account for nearly 2% of total daily production.
If they were to get involved and sanctioned, how would this impact commodity and energy markets? It would be negative and quite inflationary for markets causing a stronger dollar and weaker equities (similar to what we are seeing right now).
The History books will tell us “the greater the increase in oil prices, the more likely a recession eventually unfolds.”
The question Jonathan wants to know is how much of this is priced in to the markets already. Unfortunately we don’t know what is priced in but what isn’t priced in is a deep escalation and involvement of Iran.
If the war stopped tomorrow, we don’t think markets would react hugely positively, maybe slightly. However any escalation could be detrimental to markets.
We are already seeing the cracks appear outside of the Middle East with inflation back on the rise, consumer spending strong however savings are down, credit card purchases are up and credit card delinquencies are increasing.
Inflation & Interest rates remain high with no signs of slowing down with the 10yr US Bond Yield breaking above 4.9% on Wednesday.
Why is all of this so important? Tune into this weeks podcast to find out more.
Rory McMullan- Host
Rory is a final year student studying Accounting and Finance in London, He started his trading journey over 2 years ago but has came quite far in the process. He traded most asset classes starting with FX and Commodity trading, trading crack calendar spreads within the energy market to now running his own Long/Short equity options portfolio. The book that he trades is a systematic, top-down bottom up equity portfolio.
Rory has a strong passion for the financial markets and really hopes he is able to be of assistance to anyone either starting their trading journey or looking to further their knowledge.
Jonathan Farrelly – Host
Jonathan started his trading journey over 15 years ago, learning from some of the best institutional traders in the world.
Over the last 9 years Jonathan has taught 1000’s of retail traders how to successfully navigate the financial markets.
He has evolved Two Blokes Trading with new technologies to offer traders a new fully immersive experience.
Jonathan’s ethos has always been based on transparency with the goal to help new & experienced traders achieve their goals.